Election Insights

In our Election Insights on the German federal election, we analyse the regulatory land-scape before and after the election on 23 February 2025. You will find in-depth insights into the parties’ election manifestos, an overview of the requirements and guidelines re-sulting from EU law which the new federal government will have to comply with, and regulatory support and interpretation of the coalition talks after the election. Follow us for regular regulatory briefings and detailed legal analysis of the focal topics of automotive, energy, ESG, and digitalisation.

Guide to coalition talks

Deep dive into how coalition talks usually proceed; key negotiation phases and possible obstacles

From Exploratory Talks to Coalition Agreement – Model Process

Coalition negotiations: Mechanisms, influencing factors and lessons learnt from practice

Coalition negotiations are the cornerstone of government formation in Germany, following clear yet informal procedures that are neither legally mandated nor rigidly defined. The coalition agreement itself is not a legally binding agreement but rather a political roadmap. To develop this, potential coalition partners first explore whether they can form a stable majority and identify areas of programmatic overlap. This is followed by formalised negotiations in specialist working groups, while top politicians work on clarifying strategic directions and allocating ministries. Steering groups, usually consisting of central players such as party secretaries general or parliamentary secretaries, coordinate the various levels of negotiations.

Can we still rely on the playbooks from the last negotiations?

The experience gained from the traffic-light government’s collapse and increasingly complex rounds of negotiations between party leaders may influence upcoming coalition talks. A growing number of voices, particularly in the CDU/CSU, are advocating for streamlining or even eliminating existing negotiating groups. Instead, they propose centralising control of the process and creating a significantly reduced and focused form of the coalition agreement.

A central main negotiating group would be conceivable, which would bring in politicians with specialist expertise or those needed for party-arithmetic balance on thematic issues. This leaner structure could also influence the content of the coalition agreement: long-term plans would be outlined broadly in the coalition agreement instead of being worked out in detail. A clearly negotiated six-month plan could only be followed by general guidelines for the remainder of the legislative period. This approach also reflects lessons learnt from the traffic-light coalition’s experience. Despite significant changes and the new economic and political situation caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the traffic-light coalition continued to (rigidly) adhere to its detailed 2021 coalition agreement.

Review of the last coalition talks (2013, 2018, 2021):

The last coalition talks all followed the same structural pattern:

The ultimate responsibility for coalition negotiations typically falls to small groups of party leaders and sometimes parliamentary group leaders. While the party leaders Angela Merkel (CDU), Horst Seehofer (CSU) and Sigmar Gabriel (SPD) negotiated the final coalition agreement in a small group of three in 2013, the group of decision-makers in the traffic-light coalition expanded considerably in 2021.

Specialised political working groups represent the policy spectrum within the parties and negotiate in detail the policy areas of the often very extensive coalition agreements (2013: 134 pages, 2018: 179 pages, 2021: 144 pages). The number of working groups has also risen steadily in recent years: while 12 main working groups negotiated in 2013, there were already 18 in 2018 and 22 in 2021.

Comparison of election manifestos

Analysis for focal topics: automotive, energy, ESG, and digitalisation

EU requirements: Implementation roadmap for the 2025-2028 term

The next federal government will have to implement various EU regulations. Any potential post-election coalition will be bound by these requirements by European law. This section examines:

Key deadlines, e.g. for regulations to come into force or for directives to be implemented
Expected impact on industry
Possible reaction by the new federal government

POST-ELECTION INSIGHTS

Regulatory briefings on coalition negotiations: Noerr Insights

Following the federal election, we will provide regulatory briefings on the ongoing coalition negotiations in this section. In our Noerr Insights, our consultants will examine the potential regulatory impacts in core sectors such as automotive, energy, ESG and digital, offering guidance on how businesses can best prepare for these developments.

Briefing webinar at the halfway point of coalition negotiations

At the halfway point of the coalition negotiations, we will host a briefing webinar in collaboration with the Bernstein Group. During this session, we will share insights into the current status of the negotiations, the likely composition of the government and the anticipated effects on industry and the economy.

Analysis of the coalition agreement

Once the coalition negotiations are complete, this section will feature a legal analysis of the key elements of the coalition agreement, focusing particularly on automotive, energy, ESG and digital issues.